Retribution

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.61

89.21 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $40.14 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.07%

56 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

54.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

44 openings · below min

30 days

56 openings · below min

since tracking started

56 openings · below min

67.5%85.8%104.0%

Small sample. 56 openings and 18.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	44	85.20%±17.1	—	odds
30d	56	88.07%±15.1	—	odds
All	56	88.07%±15.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$571 1,141 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,333	$384 767 coins	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$276 551 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 500	$130 260 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$83.53 167 coins	1.6%	0	0.4	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 50	$74.30 149 coins	3.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 33	$68.22 136 coins	5.1%	3	1.7	1.79×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$60.29 121 coins	7.5%	3	2.8	1.07×
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$56.31 113 coins	14.0%	7	5.6	1.25×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	12.0%	$51.69 103 coins	15.5%	9	6.7	1.34×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.5%	$48.62 97.23 coins	15.1%	7	7.0	1.00×
AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted	13.0%	$42.99 85.97 coins	13.9%	3	7.3	0.41×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	13.0%	$34.57 69.13 coins	11.2%	7	7.3	0.96×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	14.0%	$23.56 47.11 coins	8.2%	9	7.8	1.15×
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	14.3%	$3.98 7.95 coins	1.4%	8	8.0	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedFoxo16$44.6189.21 coins$48.6297.23 coins1.09x1d

Souvenir SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$44.6189.21 coins$68.22136 coins1.53x1d

M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert$44.6189.21 coins$23.5647.11 coins0.53x1d

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient$44.6189.21 coins$34.5769.13 coins0.77x1d

M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert$44.6189.21 coins$23.5647.11 coins0.53x1d

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$44.6189.21 coins$51.69103 coins1.16x1d

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient$44.6189.21 coins$34.5769.13 coins0.77x1d

AWP | POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted$44.6189.21 coins$3.987.95 coins0.09x1d

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient$44.6189.21 coins$34.5769.13 coins0.77x2d

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$44.6189.21 coins$51.69103 coins1.16x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$44.61	89.99%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 19.1%extraordinary 0.9%#ffd700 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%Consumer Grade 3.0%mil spec 10.0%Classified 12.0%restricted 25.5%Ancient 13.0%Restricted 14.3%best hit —