Riches Box
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$49.57
99.13 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $44.61 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.03%
240 openings, odds method
Variance
15.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 36
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 200 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 13.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 133 | $1,037 2,074 coins | 17.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 133 | $984 1,967 coins | 16.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $884 1,767 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 133 | $771 1,543 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 133 | $743 1,487 coins | 12.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal | 1 in 133 | $701 1,401 coins | 11.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 95.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 233 | 228.0 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · CovertiMadyyyy$49.5799.13 coins$1,2412,481 coins25.03x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4$49.5799.13 coins$7711,543 coins15.56x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalBG2x$49.5799.13 coins$7011,401 coins14.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.57 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.0%covert 2.3%Immortal 0.8%#4b69ff 95.0%best hit $1,241 (25.03x)