Rifle Reserve

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.15

26.29 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $11.83 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.03%

4,743 openings, odds method

Variance

46.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 45

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

202 openings · below min

7 days

80.77%±22.723,452 openings

30 days

83.03%±19.384,743 openings

since tracking started

83.03%±19.384,743 openings

-0.5%85.8%172.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	202	77.29%±93.9	—	odds
7d	3,452	80.77%±22.7	−0.8σ	odds
30d	4,743	83.03%±19.4	−0.7σ	odds
All	4,743	83.03%±19.4	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,743 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 100,000	$10.9K 21,888 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$6,389 12,778 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$6,181 12,362 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 20,000	$4,761 9,523 coins	2.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$3,948 7,896 coins	3.3%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,126 6,252 coins	2.6%	1	0.5	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$564 1,128 coins	3.3%	4	3.3	1.20×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$525 1,051 coins	4.4%	5	4.7	1.05×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$277 555 coins	11.7%	20	23.7	0.84×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$250 500 coins	10.6%	20	23.7	0.84×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$113 226 coins	9.6%	49	47.4	1.03×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$106 212 coins	9.0%	49	47.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$62.94 126 coins	10.6%	99	94.9	1.04×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$61.60 123 coins	10.4%	83	94.9	0.87×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 50	$56.30 113 coins	9.5%	98	94.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$52.23 104 coins	8.8%	97	94.9	1.02×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.23 0.47 coins	0.2%	481	474.3	1.01×
AUG \| Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$0.18 0.37 coins	0.2%	471	474.3	0.99×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.18 0.36 coins	0.2%	492	474.3	1.04×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blue	10.0%	$0.14 0.29 coins	0.1%	479	474.3	1.01×
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	10.0%	$0.14 0.28 coins	0.1%	484	474.3	1.02×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.10 0.21 coins	0.1%	460	474.3	0.97×
Galil AR \| VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	14.4%	$0.07 0.15 coins	0.1%	668	683.0	0.98×
AUG \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Common	14.4%	$0.04 0.07 coins	0.0%	683	683.0	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert$13.1526.29 coins$3,1266,252 coins237.8x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$13.1526.29 coins$5641,128 coins42.90x1d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$13.1526.29 coins$5641,128 coins42.90x6d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$13.1526.29 coins$5641,128 coins42.90x7d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$13.1526.29 coins$5641,128 coins42.90x8d

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$13.1526.29 coins$5251,051 coins39.97x1d

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$13.1526.29 coins$5251,051 coins39.97x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified$13.1526.29 coins$5251,051 coins39.97x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$13.1526.29 coins$0.070.15 coins0.01x13m

AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer$13.1526.29 coins$0.180.37 coins0.01x13m

AUG | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Common$13.1526.29 coins$0.040.07 coins0.00x13m

Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$13.1526.29 coins$0.070.15 coins0.01x13m

AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer$13.1526.29 coins$0.180.37 coins0.01x13m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare$13.1526.29 coins$0.180.36 coins0.01x13m

AUG | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Common$13.1526.29 coins$0.040.07 coins0.00x13m

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$13.1526.29 coins$0.140.28 coins0.01x13m

AUG | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Common$13.1526.29 coins$0.040.07 coins0.00x1h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare$13.1526.29 coins$0.180.36 coins0.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$13.15	90.00%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 2.5%legendary 0.0%restricted 0.6%classified 6.1%Covert 2.0%mil spec 10.0%consumer 10.0%Rare 20.0%blue 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%Uncommon 14.4%Common 14.4%best hit $3,126 (237.8x)