Risk Runner
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.84
13.68 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $6.15 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.59%
1,647 openings, odds method
Variance
13.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,647 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$6.8413.68 coins$5711,141 coins83.41x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.84 | 89.97% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%covert 1.3%uncommon 0.1%mil spec 1.3%restricted 2.5%classified 5.0%industrial 8.0%#4b69ff 81.8%best hit $571 (83.41x)