Risky Business
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.67
79.34 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $35.70 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.33%
605 openings, odds method
Variance
22.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 605 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 100 | $1,437 2,874 coins | 40.2% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker | 1 in 100 | $1,253 2,507 coins | 35.1% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.16× |
| SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $23.26 46.51 coins | 9.1% | 85 | 84.7 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 14.0% | $17.64 35.28 coins | 6.9% | 92 | 84.7 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $13.44 26.87 coins | 5.3% | 86 | 84.7 | 1.02× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 14.0% | $4.27 8.53 coins | 1.7% | 87 | 84.7 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 14.0% | $2.61 5.22 coins | 1.0% | 83 | 84.7 | 0.98× |
| P2000 | Grassland (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 14.0% | $1.09 2.18 coins | 0.4% | 77 | 84.7 | 0.91× |
| Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 14.0% | $0.57 1.14 coins | 0.2% | 85 | 84.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableBG2x$39.6779.34 coins$1,4372,874 coins36.22x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.67 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.0%other 1.0%restricted 28.0%Consumer Grade 14.0%covert 14.0%mil spec 14.0%Industrial Grade 14.0%violet 14.0%best hit $1,437 (36.22x)