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RISKY GOAT X

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$12.50
25 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
117.34%
2,026 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
28 openings · below min
7 days
136.81%±93.961,230 openings
30 days
117.34%±61.592,026 openings
since tracking started
117.34%±61.592,026 openings
-0.5%115.5%231.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2897.29%±132.1—sample
7d1,230136.81%±94.0—sample
30d2,026117.34%±61.6—sample
All2,026117.34%±61.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$12.5025 coins$6,32812,655 coins506.2x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$12.5025 coins$1,6383,277 coins131.1x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$12.5025 coins$1,6383,277 coins131.1x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$12.5025 coins$1,6383,277 coins131.1x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert$12.5025 coins$1,3012,602 coins104.1x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert$12.5025 coins$1,3012,602 coins104.1x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert$12.5025 coins$1,3012,602 coins104.1x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.5025 coins$1,2522,504 coins100.2x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.5025 coins$1,2522,504 coins100.2x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$12.5025 coins$1,2522,504 coins100.2x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.5025 coins$165329 coins13.16x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.5025 coins$165329 coins13.16x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$12.5025 coins$165329 coins13.16x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerClawAngela$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x
G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$12.5025 coins$0.030.06 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $6,328 (506.2x)