Roger that
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.83
17.66 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $7.95 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.07%
2,313 openings, odds method
Variance
47.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,313 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 1,250 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 10.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 1,111 | $809 1,618 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 909 | $554 1,109 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $18.09 36.17 coins | 22.8% | 198 | 231.3 | 0.86× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $7.59 15.17 coins | 23.9% | 580 | 578.3 | 1.00× |
| MP7 | Olive Plaid (Factory New)weapon · #777777 | 31.0% | $2.55 5.1 coins | 9.9% | 745 | 717.0 | 1.04× |
| Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 33.7% | $2.01 4.02 coins | 8.5% | 784 | 779.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.8317.66 coins$1,0102,020 coins114.4x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.8317.66 coins$1,0102,020 coins114.4x
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$8.8317.66 coins$1,0102,020 coins114.4x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$8.8317.66 coins$5541,109 coins62.77x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$8.8317.66 coins$5541,109 coins62.77x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$8.8317.66 coins$5541,109 coins62.77x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.83 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%classified 25.0%#777777 31.0%mil spec 33.7%best hit $1,010 (114.4x)