Roses
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$120.17
240 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $108.15 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.39%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$120240 coins$193386 coins1.60x
Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$120240 coins$93.07186 coins0.77x
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertVinnie2524$120240 coins$156312 coins1.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.9%#EB4B4B 0.3%other 0.4%extraordinary 5.5%mil spec 2.0%restricted 30.0%industrial 26.0%classified 19.9%Mil Spec Grade 8.0%best hit —