Roulette Drop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$40.92

81.83 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $36.82 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.66%

30 openings, odds method

Variance

5.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

30 openings · below min

since tracking started

30 openings · below min

-0.5%133.8%268.0%

Small sample. 30 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	75.07%±192.4	—	odds
30d	30	101.66%±86.0	—	odds
All	30	101.66%±86.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$882 1,765 coins	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 167	$708 1,416 coins	11.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 100	$608 1,215 coins	16.5%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$239 478 coins	19.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$162 323 coins	15.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$115 230 coins	15.6%	3	1.5	2.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$49.36 98.71 coins	13.4%	3	3.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$13.79 27.57 coins	3.7%	1	3.0	0.33×
Nova \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	10.0%	$3.10 6.19 coins	0.8%	3	3.0	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$3.04 6.08 coins	0.8%	7	3.0	2.33×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$0.81 1.61 coins	0.2%	2	3.0	0.67×
G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	36.8%	$0.09 0.17 coins	0.1%	10	11.0	0.91×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$40.9281.83 coins$7081,416 coins17.31x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$40.9281.83 coins$115230 coins2.81x2d

G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$40.9281.83 coins$0.090.17 coins0.00x2d

Nova | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restrictedaxel02legmail$40.9281.83 coins$3.106.19 coins0.08x2d

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$40.9281.83 coins$3.046.08 coins0.07x3d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert$40.9281.83 coins$49.3698.71 coins1.21x3d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertaxel02legmail$40.9281.83 coins$13.7927.57 coins0.34x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.92	89.99%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 20.6%gold 1.0%covert knife 3.0%extraordinary 3.5%mil spec 5.0%Restricted 10.0%industrial 46.8%restricted 10.0%best hit $708 (17.31x)