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Royal Vault

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$10.18
20.36 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $9.16 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.95%
16.7K openings, odds method
Variance
106.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
61.04%±61.231,094 openings
7 days
84.78%±17.7313K openings
30 days
80.95%±15.6816.7K openings
since tracking started
80.95%±15.6816.7K openings
-0.5%61.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,09461.04%±61.2−0.9σodds
7d13K84.78%±17.7−0.6σodds
30d16.7K80.95%±15.7−1.1σodds
All16.7K80.95%±15.7−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 10,000$4,425 8,850 coins4.8%21.71.19×
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B1 in 6,667$3,915 7,830 coins6.4%12.50.40×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 5,714$2,813 5,625 coins5.4%22.90.68×
Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary1 in 5,714$2,528 5,057 coins4.8%22.90.68×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 5,714$1,979 3,958 coins3.8%02.90.00×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 5,714$1,731 3,462 coins3.3%22.90.68×
★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,714$1,678 3,356 coins3.2%12.90.34×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby1 in 5,714$1,543 3,086 coins2.9%12.90.34×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 4,000$1,350 2,701 coins3.7%34.20.72×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 3,333$1,293 2,585 coins4.2%105.01.99×
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial1 in 48$250 500 coins57.3%363351.61.03×
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff97.7%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.1%16,35716361.41.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes$10.1820.36 coins$4,4258,850 coins434.7x
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifesdivaxxdiva$10.1820.36 coins$4,4258,850 coins434.7x
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B$10.1820.36 coins$3,9157,830 coins384.6x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$10.1820.36 coins$2,8135,625 coins276.3x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$10.1820.36 coins$2,8135,625 coins276.3x
Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary$10.1820.36 coins$2,5285,057 coins248.4x
Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary$10.1820.36 coins$2,5285,057 coins248.4x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.1820.36 coins$1,7313,462 coins170.0x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.1820.36 coins$1,7313,462 coins170.0x
★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$10.1820.36 coins$1,6783,356 coins164.8x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffBG2x$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$10.1820.36 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$10.1889.96%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedknifes 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%covert 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%industrial 2.1%#4b69ff 97.7%best hit $4,425 (434.7x)