Rubix
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.30
22.6 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $10.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.35%
166 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $352 705 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $176 352 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 29 | $45.21 90.41 coins | 15.1% | 11 | 5.6 | 1.95× |
| P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $25.74 51.47 coins | 25.3% | 10 | 16.6 | 0.60× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $21.43 42.85 coins | 21.1% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× |
| P90 | Schematic (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $8.01 16.02 coins | 7.9% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.08× |
| MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 16.0% | $5.23 10.46 coins | 8.2% | 29 | 26.6 | 1.09× |
| Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 50.0% | $2.09 4.18 coins | 10.3% | 84 | 83.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.30 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.1%covert knife 0.5%extraordinary 3.4%mil spec 10.0%milspec 10.0%#87c7ff 16.0%#4b69ff 50.0%best hit —