Rudolph

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$123.19

246 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $110.87 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.17%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

26.5%96.2%166.0%

Small sample. 16 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	16	96.17%±69.1	—	odds
30d	16	96.17%±69.1	—	odds
All	16	96.17%±69.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| ropz (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · Ancient	1 in 100,000	$3,290 6,581 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100,000	$3,288 6,576 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$3,134 6,269 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$3,126 6,252 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$2,643 5,286 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$1,271 2,542 coins	1.1%	1	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$765 1,530 coins	6.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 100	$760 1,520 coins	6.9%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$754 1,507 coins	6.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$751 1,501 coins	6.8%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	24.9%	$251 501 coins	56.3%	7	8.0	0.88×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 14	$75.70 151 coins	4.8%	2	2.2	0.89×
Souvenir AUG \| Storm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 14	$75.66 151 coins	4.8%	2	2.2	0.89×
★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 14	$75.61 151 coins	4.8%	3	2.2	1.34×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	25.0%	$2.63 5.26 coins	0.6%	5	8.0	0.63×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	11	8.0	1.38×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$123246 coins$1,2712,542 coins10.32x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold$123246 coins$7601,520 coins6.17x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$123246 coins$2.635.26 coins0.02x1d

Souvenir AUG | Storm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$123246 coins$75.66151 coins0.61x1d

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$123246 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$123246 coins$75.61151 coins0.61x1d

Souvenir XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$123246 coins$75.70151 coins0.61x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold$123246 coins$7601,520 coins6.17x1d

Souvenir AUG | Storm (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$123246 coins$75.66151 coins0.61x1d

Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedCOCOAAA$123246 coins$251501 coins2.03x1d

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$123246 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x6d

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$123246 coins$2.635.26 coins0.02x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$123	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%covert 1.1%gold 1.0%#EB4B4B 1.0%covert knife 8.0%restricted 24.9%Industrial Grade 7.0%Consumer Grade 7.0%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%industrial 25.0%best hit $1,271 (10.32x)