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Russian Roulette

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$4,609.03
9,218 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4,148.13 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.24%
656 openings, odds method
Variance
12.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
8 openings · below min
7 days
102.24%±27.42656 openings
30 days
102.24%±27.42656 openings
since tracking started
102.24%±27.42656 openings
-0.5%224.5%449.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8200.38%±248.3—odds
7d656102.24%±27.4+0.9σodds
30d656102.24%±27.4+0.9σodds
All656102.24%±27.4+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 656 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$112K 223,312 coins26.9%46.60.61×
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100$73.5K 147,047 coins17.7%106.61.52×
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100$72.4K 144,822 coins17.5%106.61.52×
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 100$52.4K 104,780 coins12.6%106.61.52×
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 100$36.5K 72,902 coins8.8%66.60.91×
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 100$31.6K 63,128 coins7.6%96.61.37×
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 80$25.5K 51,019 coins7.7%58.20.61×
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified92.7%$51.63 103 coins1.2%602608.40.99×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,6099,218 coins$112K223,312 coins24.23x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,6099,218 coins$112K223,312 coins24.23x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,6099,218 coins$112K223,312 coins24.23x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$4,6099,218 coins$112K223,312 coins24.23x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarybigbombaclat$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$4,6099,218 coins$73.5K147,047 coins15.95x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classifiedpiyeyooo$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$4,6099,218 coins$51.63103 coins0.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$4,60990.00%8
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%legendary 3.0%remarkable 3.3%Classified 92.7%best hit $112K (24.23x)