Rusty Cave
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$54.28
109 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $48.85 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.84%
52 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 52 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $696 1,392 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $401 802 coins | 16.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 · Phase 3 | 1 in 25 | $213 427 coins | 17.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $209 418 coins | 17.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 25 | $202 404 coins | 16.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $85.96 172 coins | 14.1% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.68× |
| Charm | Diamond Dogcharm · rare | 10.0% | $13.43 26.86 coins | 2.7% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 67.0% | $1.02 2.04 coins | 1.4% | 35 | 34.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 · Phase 3$54.28109 coins$213427 coins3.93x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$54.28109 coins$202404 coins3.72x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.28 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 9.0%covert knife 6.0%#ffd700 4.0%covert 4.0%rare 10.0%Rare 67.0%best hit —