Sack of Fortune
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.75
25.49 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $11.47 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.74%
2,297 openings, odds method
Variance
12.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,297 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 100 | $386 771 coins | 33.6% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $153 305 coins | 26.6% | 42 | 45.9 | 0.91× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $39.38 78.75 coins | 6.9% | 53 | 45.9 | 1.15× |
| USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $39.29 78.58 coins | 6.9% | 38 | 45.9 | 0.83× |
| Charm | Baby's AKcharm · Rare | 1 in 50 | $39.00 78 coins | 6.8% | 44 | 45.9 | 0.96× |
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 8.9% | 71 | 68.9 | 1.03× |
| Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommon | 1 in 33 | $31.00 62 coins | 8.1% | 71 | 68.9 | 1.03× |
| Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 85.0% | $0.30 0.6 coins | 2.2% | 1,956 | 1952.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.75 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%restricted 2.0%Rare 2.0%classified 3.0%uncommon 3.0%mil spec 85.0%best hit —