Safe Wager
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.47
4.94 coins
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $2.22 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.87%
638 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 638 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 9.6% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $16.76 33.52 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $14.61 29.21 coins | 6.6% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 100 | $8.06 16.12 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× |
| P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $7.37 14.74 coins | 3.3% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 50 | $4.46 8.91 coins | 4.0% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× |
| Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 33 | $2.62 5.23 coins | 3.5% | 23 | 19.1 | 1.20× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 90.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 61.8% | 579 | 574.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.47 | 89.91% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 92.0%mil spec 1.0%consumer 1.0%classified 1.0%#8847ff 2.0%Consumer Grade 3.0%best hit —