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Sakura

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,134.59
2,269 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,021.12 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.66%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
20 openings · below min
30 days
20 openings · below min
since tracking started
20 openings · below min
-0.5%72.5%145.5%

Small sample. 20 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1260.85%±84.2—odds
7d2054.66%±65.2—odds
30d2054.66%±65.2—odds
All2054.66%±65.2—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$9,318 18,637 coins18.3%00.4—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 50$5,754 11,508 coins11.3%10.4—
Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon1 in 50$5,000 10,000 coins9.8%00.4—
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 29$3,086 6,171 coins10.6%00.7—
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 29$2,371 4,742 coins8.1%00.7—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20$1,750 3,500 coins8.6%01.00.00×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 20$1,252 2,504 coins6.1%11.01.00×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 13$1,022 2,043 coins7.5%11.50.67×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 13$982 1,964 coins7.2%21.51.33×
★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary12.0%$825 1,650 coins9.7%22.40.83×
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical50.0%$58.64 117 coins2.9%1310.01.30×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,1352,269 coins$5,75411,508 coins5.07x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$1,1352,269 coins$1,2522,504 coins1.10x
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$1,1352,269 coins$1,0222,043 coins0.90x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,1352,269 coins$9821,964 coins0.87x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,1352,269 coins$9821,964 coins0.87x
★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinaryfficient$1,1352,269 coins$8251,650 coins0.73x
★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary$1,1352,269 coins$8251,650 coins0.73x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$1,1352,269 coins$1,0222,043 coins0.90x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,1352,269 coins$5,75411,508 coins5.07x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBreeTheG$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1,1352,269 coins$58.64117 coins0.05x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$1,13590.00%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.0%uncommon 2.0%covert knife 5.0%Extraordinary 12.0%Mythical 50.0%best hit $5,754 (5.07x)