Saltwater Splash
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.86
7.72 coins
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $3.43 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.07%
283 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 283 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $10.11 20.21 coins | 29.4% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $7.18 14.36 coins | 20.9% | 34 | 28.3 | 1.20× |
| Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.37 12.73 coins | 18.5% | 21 | 28.3 | 0.74× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 14.7% | 20 | 28.3 | 0.71× |
| Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $4.59 9.17 coins | 13.4% | 39 | 28.3 | 1.38× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 50.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 3.1% | 144 | 141.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.86 | 88.92% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 10.0%covert 10.0%classified 10.0%restricted 20.0%#4b69ff 50.0%best hit —