Santa Hat
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.91
1.81 coins
Advertised RTP
89.71%
EV $0.81 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.53%
11.5K openings, odds method
Variance
45.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $61.04 122 coins | 75.2% | 122 | 115.4 | 1.06× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2.67 5.34 coins | 3.3% | 107 | 115.4 | 0.93× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $2.35 4.7 coins | 5.8% | 196 | 230.8 | 0.85× |
| CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 25 | $1.05 2.1 coins | 5.2% | 468 | 461.6 | 1.01× |
| Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 1 in 25 | $0.66 1.32 coins | 3.3% | 457 | 461.6 | 0.99× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $0.60 1.2 coins | 3.0% | 461 | 461.6 | 1.00× |
| MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 25 | $0.58 1.17 coins | 2.9% | 448 | 461.6 | 0.97× |
| MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 80.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 1.5% | 9,281 | 9232.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil specBriskVault1293$0.911.81 coins$61.04122 coins67.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.71%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.91 | 89.71% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 7.0%covert 1.0%#4b69ff 84.0%milspec 4.0%violet 4.0%best hit $61.04 (67.44x)