Santas Glocks

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.77

5.54 coins

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $2.49 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.42%

16.1K openings, odds method

Variance

155.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 364

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1,133 openings · below min

7 days

81.95%±22.2312.1K openings

30 days

82.42%±19.2316.1K openings

since tracking started

82.42%±19.2316.1K openings

19.5%92.8%166.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,133	92.96%±72.6	—	odds
7d	12.1K	81.95%±22.2	−0.7σ	odds
30d	16.1K	82.42%±19.2	−0.8σ	odds
All	16.1K	82.42%±19.2	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,182 2,363 coins	23.7%	6	8.1	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$466 933 coins	18.7%	11	16.1	0.68×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 800	$424 849 coins	21.3%	24	20.2	1.19×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 400	$131 262 coins	13.1%	42	40.4	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$52.17 104 coins	10.5%	73	80.7	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$11.64 23.28 coins	4.7%	165	161.4	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.68 1.35 coins	1.4%	828	807.2	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.43 0.86 coins	1.7%	1,551	1614.3	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.24 0.48 coins	1.9%	3,218	3228.6	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	63.0%	$0.12 0.24 coins	3.0%	10,225	10166.1	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.775.54 coins$1,1822,363 coins426.6x1d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.775.54 coins$1,1822,363 coins426.6x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfredric89$2.775.54 coins$1,1822,363 coins426.6x4d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.775.54 coins$1,1822,363 coins426.6x5d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.775.54 coins$1,1822,363 coins426.6x7d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.775.54 coins$1,1822,363 coins426.6x8d

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$2.775.54 coins$466933 coins168.4x1d

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$2.775.54 coins$466933 coins168.4x2d

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emeraldspejsat$2.775.54 coins$466933 coins168.4x3d

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$2.775.54 coins$466933 coins168.4x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.120.24 coins0.04x36s

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.240.48 coins0.09x36s

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.120.24 coins0.04x36s

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.240.48 coins0.09x36s

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.120.24 coins0.04x36s

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specTEAMVALTERI$2.775.54 coins$0.120.24 coins0.04x36s

Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.430.86 coins0.16x1h

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.775.54 coins$0.120.24 coins0.04x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.77	89.98%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 5.1%red 0.1%mil spec 94.3%covert 0.5%best hit $1,182 (426.6x)