Santa’s Sleigh
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.90
41.8 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.81 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.79%
481 openings, odds method
Variance
18.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 65
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 481 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $809 1,619 coins | 10.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $667 1,334 coins | 14.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 125 | $463 926 coins | 19.7% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $332 664 coins | 17.7% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 69 | $122 244 coins | 9.4% | 12 | 7.0 | 1.72× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $60.88 122 coins | 6.5% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $13.79 27.57 coins | 11.0% | 67 | 72.1 | 0.93× |
| P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 79.0% | $0.81 1.62 coins | 3.4% | 382 | 380.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$20.9041.8 coins$1,3962,792 coins66.79x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$20.9041.8 coins$6671,334 coins31.91x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$20.9041.8 coins$6671,334 coins31.91x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.90 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%classified 0.3%extraordinary 0.4%Covert 0.8%restricted 2.0%mil spec 79.0%best hit $1,396 (66.79x)