Scope
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.89
41.78 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $18.80 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.70%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 6.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialaxel02legmail$20.8941.78 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.89 | 89.98% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%#d32ee6 1.2%other 4.5%Classified 3.5%classified 9.0%gray 4.3%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Industrial Grade 8.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 15.0%industrial 34.5%best hit —