Scratch
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$64.57
129 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $58.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.45%
44 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 44 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 100 | $751 1,501 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 100 | $630 1,260 coins | 10.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 100 | $506 1,012 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 100 | $451 903 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 17 | $197 395 coins | 20.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 11 | $132 264 coins | 20.4% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal | 14.0% | $76.84 154 coins | 18.5% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.30× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 67.0% | $0.39 0.77 coins | 0.4% | 29 | 29.5 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife$64.57129 coins$7511,501 coins11.62x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$64.57129 coins$6301,260 coins9.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$64.57129 coins$132264 coins2.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.57 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 7.0%covert 3.0%covert knife 9.0%Immortal 14.0%Mythical 67.0%best hit $751 (11.62x)