Scream
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.34
101 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $45.30 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.09%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · goldvalentinslisaks$50.34101 coins$7341,467 coins14.58x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.34 | 89.99% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 3.0%covert 9.0%other 2.0%knifes 2.0%covert knife 4.0%Ancient 2.0%Industrial Grade 2.0%industrial 11.0%#4b69ff 20.0%Rare 20.0%blue 25.0%best hit $734 (14.58x)