SDL Magnet
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22,050.28
44,101 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $19,845.25 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.84%
82 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 82 openings and 9.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $217K 434,217 coins | 43.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 13 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 13.7% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 15.9% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 20.2% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.0% | $4,209 8,418 coins | 3.2% | 10 | 12.3 | 0.81× |
| Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B | 15.0% | $3,915 7,830 coins | 3.0% | 21 | 12.3 | 1.71× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives | 15.0% | $250 500 coins | 0.2% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 18.5% | $125 249 coins | 0.1% | 11 | 15.2 | 0.73× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$22.1K44,101 coins$36.3K72,651 coins1.65x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$22.1K44,101 coins$36.3K72,651 coins1.65x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary$22.1K44,101 coins$36.3K72,651 coins1.65x
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$22.1K44,101 coins$31.6K63,128 coins1.43x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$22.1K44,101 coins$31.6K63,128 coins1.43x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$26.7K53,347 coins1.21x
Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4BBlankTorch7918$22.1K44,101 coins$3,9157,830 coins0.18x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives$22.1K44,101 coins$250500 coins0.01x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$22.1K44,101 coins$217K434,217 coins9.85x
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$22.1K44,101 coins$125249 coins0.01x
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b$22.1K44,101 coins$125249 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.1K | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 34.0%legendary 7.5%remarkable 10.0%#EB4B4B 15.0%Knives 15.0%#eb4b4b 18.5%best hit $217K (9.85x)