Seabreeze
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.14
70.27 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.62 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.06%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 10,000 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 100 | $416 832 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 50 | $210 420 coins | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 25 | $117 234 coins | 14.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $90.84 182 coins | 23.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 10.0% | $62.66 125 coins | 19.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 22.0% | $22.31 44.61 coins | 15.5% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.27× |
| XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 53.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.14 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.0%covert knife 4.0%mil spec 8.0%consumer 53.0%best hit —