Seasonal Supply
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.44
30.88 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $13.90 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.95%
761 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 761 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$15.4430.88 coins$7471,494 coins48.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$15.4430.88 coins$153307 coins9.93x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.44 | 89.99% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.4%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.0%Legendary 89.6%covert knife 3.0%classified 6.0%best hit $747 (48.39x)