selling a nga for 100

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$50.00
100 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
118.71%
762 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
88 openings · below min
7 days
706 openings · below min
30 days
762 openings · below min
since tracking started
762 openings · below min
-0.5%104.3%209.0%

Small sample. 762 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h880.01%±0.00—sample
7d706121.56%±86.9—sample
30d762118.71%±81.4—sample
All762118.71%±81.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary$50.00100 coins$8,97217,944 coins179.4x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$50.00100 coins$6,89213,784 coins137.8x
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$50.00100 coins$4,9629,924 coins99.24x
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$50.00100 coins$2,3174,635 coins46.35x
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$50.00100 coins$2,3174,635 coins46.35x

Latest dropsnewest first

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumernigxoo$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$50.00100 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $8,972 (179.4x)