Shadow Battler

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$226.70

453 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $204.03 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.17%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

60.0%91.3%122.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	91.17%±30.5	—	odds
30d	6	91.17%±30.5	—	odds
All	6	91.17%±30.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 16	$493 986 coins	15.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 16	$242 484 coins	7.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 16	$236 472 coins	7.2%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4	1 in 16	$235 470 coins	7.2%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 16	$223 447 coins	6.8%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 · Phase 3	1 in 16	$213 427 coins	6.5%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 16	$213 426 coins	6.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 16	$210 420 coins	6.4%	2	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 16	$209 418 coins	6.4%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3	1 in 16	$202 405 coins	6.2%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 16	$134 267 coins	4.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 16	$133 267 coins	4.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 16	$133 267 coins	4.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16	$132 264 coins	4.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 16	$129 258 coins	3.9%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16	$125 251 coins	3.8%	1	0.4	—

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.