Shadow Boss
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,279.08
4,558 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,051.16 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.16%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertpooop$2,2794,558 coins$9,39818,795 coins4.12x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$2,2794,558 coins$9,35618,711 coins4.11x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$2,2794,558 coins$2,2514,502 coins0.99x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$2,2794,558 coins$2,2514,502 coins0.99x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Factory New)weapon · Consumer GradeSanityy$2,2794,558 coins$2.625.23 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$2,2794,558 coins$2,2514,502 coins0.99x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire$2,2794,558 coins$2,2514,502 coins0.99x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertpooop$2,2794,558 coins$9,39818,795 coins4.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,279 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 2.0%contraband 2.0%covert 14.0%Covert 2.0%Consumer Grade 40.0%gray 40.0%best hit $9,398 (4.12x)