Sharp Tool
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$70.53
141 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $63.48 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 10,000 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $610 1,220 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $605 1,211 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Knives | 1 in 1,000 | $571 1,141 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 200 | $244 489 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $226 452 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $117 235 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $116 231 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 20 | $65.14 130 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 89.7% | $56.72 113 coins | 80.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.53 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 94.2%Covert 0.2%Knives 0.1%sunny 0.5%rare 5.0%