Shatter
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.14
18.27 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $8.22 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.07%
279 openings, odds method
Variance
6.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 279 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $111 222 coins | 13.5% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $102 204 coins | 12.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $83.88 168 coins | 10.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $75.38 151 coins | 9.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $68.12 136 coins | 24.9% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.72× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 33 | $59.36 119 coins | 21.7% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.55× |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $2.68 5.35 coins | 8.1% | 72 | 69.8 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 65.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 176 | 181.3 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.14 | 89.96% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%covert 2.0%restricted 3.0%#4b69ff 3.0%classified 25.0%Consumer Grade 65.0%best hit —