Shell
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.23
20.45 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $9.20 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.32%
1,188 openings, odds method
Variance
18.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 36
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,196 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.2320.45 coins$1,2522,504 coins122.4x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$10.2320.45 coins$5541,107 coins54.15x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$10.2320.45 coins$352705 coins34.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.23 | 89.98% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.2%covert knife 0.6%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 1.0%industrial 8.5%consumer 2.3%Rare 5.2%mil spec 80.0%best hit $1,252 (122.4x)