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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.14

10.28 coins

Advertised RTP

89.92%

EV $4.62 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.74%

36.5K openings, odds method

Variance

105.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 151

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.46%±36.553,022 openings

7 days

88.50%±11.8128.9K openings

30 days

87.74%±10.5136.5K openings

since tracking started

87.74%±10.5136.5K openings

66.5%103.5%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,022	103.46%±36.6	+0.7σ	odds
7d	28.9K	88.50%±11.8	−0.2σ	odds
30d	36.5K	87.74%±10.5	−0.4σ	odds
All	36.5K	87.74%±10.5	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Charm \| Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon	1 in 100,000	$5,000 10,000 coins	1.1%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$4,916 9,833 coins	1.1%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$4,198 8,395 coins	0.9%	1	0.4	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$2,792 5,584 coins	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 303	$557 1,113 coins	39.7%	118	120.7	0.98×
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 303	$424 847 coins	30.2%	105	120.7	0.87×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 298	$361 722 coins	26.2%	139	122.9	1.13×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	99.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	36,208	36205.3	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert$5.1410.28 coins$4,1988,395 coins816.7x2d

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.1410.28 coins$5571,113 coins108.3x2h

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.1410.28 coins$5571,113 coins108.3x3h

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.1410.28 coins$5571,113 coins108.3x11h

StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.1410.28 coins$5571,113 coins108.3x12h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$5.1410.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x46s

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialMoon1025$5.1410.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x46s

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$5.1410.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialGrimViper3313$5.1410.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$5.1410.28 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.14	89.92%	8

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listeduncommon 0.0%covert 0.0%Classified 0.3%Restricted 0.3%other 0.3%industrial 99.0%best hit $4,198 (816.7x)