Siege

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$124.92

250 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $112.42 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.70%

114 openings, odds method

Variance

5.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

92 openings · below min

30 days

114 openings · below min

since tracking started

114 openings · below min

-0.5%99.8%200.0%

Small sample. 114 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	42.97%±156.5	—	odds
7d	92	84.82%±46.2	—	odds
30d	114	81.70%±41.5	—	odds
All	114	81.70%±41.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,824 3,649 coins	16.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$1,784 3,567 coins	15.9%	1	1.1	0.88×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$1,266 2,533 coins	11.3%	1	1.1	0.88×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$759 1,518 coins	6.8%	3	1.1	2.63×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 100	$510 1,020 coins	4.5%	1	1.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	95.0%	$53.67 107 coins	45.4%	108	108.3	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.