Siege Cache
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.32
56.63 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.48 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.72%
162 openings, odds method
Variance
13.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 43
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 162 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$28.3256.63 coins$1,1132,226 coins39.30x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.32 | 89.99% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%Covert 0.0%covert 2.1%legendary 0.0%high 0.0%other 0.0%classified 97.7%best hit $1,113 (39.30x)