Sigma Drop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.56

27.11 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $12.20 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.02%

2,501 openings, odds method

Variance

15.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 39

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

102.68%±50.44238 openings

7 days

81.29%±17.122,065 openings

30 days

85.02%±15.562,501 openings

since tracking started

85.02%±15.562,501 openings

51.5%102.8%154.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	238	102.68%±50.4	+0.5σ	odds
7d	2,065	81.29%±17.1	−1.0σ	odds
30d	2,501	85.02%±15.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,501	85.02%±15.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,501 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$1,197 2,393 coins	1.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 3,333	$1,044 2,089 coins	2.6%	1	0.8	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$759 1,518 coins	6.2%	3	2.5	1.20×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 250	$506 1,012 coins	16.6%	10	10.0	1.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$176 352 coins	28.8%	44	50.0	0.88×
★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$116 232 coins	19.0%	43	50.0	0.86×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$52.31 105 coins	10.7%	62	62.5	0.99×
Charm \| Semi-Preciouscharm · rare	1 in 33	$20.86 41.72 coins	5.1%	67	75.0	0.89×
USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$12.06 24.12 coins	3.0%	74	75.0	0.99×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$5.37 10.74 coins	1.3%	83	75.0	1.11×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$2.75 5.49 coins	0.7%	78	75.0	1.04×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$1.65 3.3 coins	0.4%	71	75.0	0.95×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	78.0%	$0.71 1.43 coins	4.6%	1,965	1949.8	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$13.5627.11 coins$1,0442,089 coins77.06x6d

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$13.5627.11 coins$7591,518 coins56.00x1d

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$13.5627.11 coins$7591,518 coins56.00x4d

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$13.5627.11 coins$7591,518 coins56.00x6d

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$13.5627.11 coins$5061,012 coins37.31x12h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$13.5627.11 coins$5061,012 coins37.31x19h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$13.5627.11 coins$5061,012 coins37.31x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$13.5627.11 coins$5061,012 coins37.31x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$13.5627.11 coins$5.3710.74 coins0.40x26m

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.5627.11 coins$0.711.43 coins0.05x26m

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfortune$13.5627.11 coins$0.711.43 coins0.05x26m

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.5627.11 coins$0.711.43 coins0.05x26m

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife$13.5627.11 coins$116232 coins8.56x26m

P90 | Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$13.5627.11 coins$1.653.3 coins0.12x26m

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted$13.5627.11 coins$0.711.43 coins0.05x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$13.56	89.99%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.9%gold 0.0%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 2.0%covert knife 2.0%rare 3.0%industrial 3.0%Legendary 3.0%classified 3.0%mil spec 3.0%restricted 78.0%best hit $1,044 (77.06x)