Sister

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.18

36.35 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $16.36 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.73%

2,961 openings, odds method

Variance

87.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

110.54%±112.78263 openings

7 days

81.34%±36.502,511 openings

30 days

79.73%±33.612,961 openings

since tracking started

79.73%±33.612,961 openings

-0.5%111.8%224.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	263	110.54%±112.8	+0.4σ	odds
7d	2,511	81.34%±36.5	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,961	79.73%±33.6	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,961	79.73%±33.6	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,961 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$12.1K 24,151 coins	7.4%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,444 14,887 coins	4.6%	0	0.3	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$6,328 12,655 coins	3.9%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,722 7,444 coins	2.3%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,171 4,342 coins	1.3%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$1,197 2,393 coins	3.7%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,065 2,130 coins	3.3%	4	1.5	2.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$657 1,315 coins	2.0%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$639 1,278 coins	2.0%	3	1.5	2.03×
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$201 401 coins	12.3%	23	29.6	0.78×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 33	$149 298 coins	27.4%	104	88.8	1.17×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$75.07 150 coins	13.8%	97	88.8	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$50.58 101 coins	9.3%	84	88.8	0.95×
Charm \| Lil' Crasscharm · uncommon	1 in 33	$31.00 62 coins	5.7%	77	88.8	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 57	$12.54 25.08 coins	1.3%	66	51.8	1.27×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	85.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,501	2516.8	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$18.1836.35 coins$1,1972,393 coins65.84x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$18.1836.35 coins$1,0652,130 coins58.59x18h

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$18.1836.35 coins$1,0652,130 coins58.59x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$18.1836.35 coins$6571,315 coins36.17x6d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$18.1836.35 coins$6391,278 coins35.15x18h

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$18.1836.35 coins$6391,278 coins35.15x4d

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$18.1836.35 coins$6391,278 coins35.15x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial$18.1836.35 coins$12.5425.08 coins0.69x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$18.1836.35 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMoon1025$18.1836.35 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommon$18.1836.35 coins$31.0062 coins1.71x15h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMoon1025$18.1836.35 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$18.1836.35 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covertMoon1025$18.1836.35 coins$50.58101 coins2.78x15h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$18.1836.35 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$18.18	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.2%remarkable 0.0%covert knife 1.0%sunny 3.0%restricted 3.0%uncommon 3.0%industrial 1.8%#4b69ff 85.0%best hit $1,197 (65.84x)