Skeleton
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.89
7.77 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $3.50 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.62%
1,345 openings, odds method
Variance
9.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,345 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.89 | 89.99% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.6%mil spec 26.4%Industrial Grade 2.0%#eb4b4b 3.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%light blue 8.0%#777777 20.0%restricted 24.0%best hit $252 (64.76x)