Skeleton Knife
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.30
10.59 coins
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $4.76 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.63%
4,974 openings, odds method
Variance
210.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 62
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,038 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare | 1 in 1,000 | $503 1,007 coins | 10.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $129 258 coins | 13.5% | 27 | 25.2 | 1.07× |
| Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 100 | $51.43 103 coins | 10.8% | 59 | 50.4 | 1.17× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 40.0% | $5.51 11.01 coins | 46.2% | 2,015 | 2015.2 | 1.00× |
| UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 2.1% | 983 | 1007.6 | 0.98× |
| Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 1.1% | 1,000 | 1007.6 | 0.99× |
| MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1 | 18.4% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 950 | 926.5 | 1.03× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.30 | 89.93% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 18.4%covert 40.5%rare 0.1%other 1.0%blue 20.0%restricted 20.0%best hit $503 (95.06x)