Skittles
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.95
13.9 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $6.25 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.89%
284 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 100 | $85.93 172 coins | 13.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| Tec-9 | Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 100 | $76.49 153 coins | 12.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.76× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $75.78 152 coins | 12.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $49.74 99.48 coins | 15.9% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $42.09 84.17 coins | 13.5% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 20 | $8.39 16.78 coins | 6.7% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| MAC-10 | Indigo (Factory New)weapon · Common | 1 in 20 | $8.06 16.12 coins | 6.4% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.70× |
| P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 5.1% | 28 | 28.4 | 0.99× |
| MP7 | Tall Grass (Field-Tested)weapon · #d2d2d2 | 10.0% | $2.10 4.19 coins | 3.4% | 25 | 28.4 | 0.88× |
| PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 63.0% | $1.08 2.16 coins | 10.9% | 188 | 178.9 | 1.05× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.95 | 89.95% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 1.0%#4b69ff 1.0%restricted 66.0%classified 12.0%blue 5.0%Common 5.0%#d2d2d2 10.0%best hit —