Skull
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$102.47
205 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $92.22 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.22%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 27.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B | 1 in 33 | $577 1,154 coins | 18.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 17 | $297 595 coins | 19.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 17 | $296 592 coins | 19.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · consumer | 1 in 17 | $167 335 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 22.0% | $13.71 27.42 coins | 3.3% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $3.67 7.34 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $0.94 1.88 coins | 0.3% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedcrazies$102205 coins$0.941.88 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%#EB4B4B 3.0%extraordinary 6.0%gold 6.0%consumer 6.0%blue 22.0%restricted 25.0%classified 30.0%best hit —