Sled
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.00
2 coins
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $0.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.54%
5,933 openings, odds method
Variance
26.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,933 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 100 | $50.13 100 coins | 55.8% | 57 | 59.3 | 0.96× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $12.52 25.03 coins | 13.9% | 66 | 59.3 | 1.11× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $7.51 15.01 coins | 8.4% | 79 | 59.3 | 1.33× |
| G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 5.6% | 58 | 59.3 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $2.53 5.06 coins | 2.8% | 59 | 59.3 | 0.99× |
| Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff | 1 in 100 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.6% | 53 | 59.3 | 0.89× |
| SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 93.0% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 12.9% | 5,502 | 5517.7 | 1.00× |
| FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 100 | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 59 | 59.3 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradesoolar$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeSolidLynx6577$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$1.002 coins$50.13100 coins50.13x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.00 | 89.82% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 1.0%mil spec 3.0%covert 1.0%#4b69ff 2.0%consumer 93.0%best hit $50.13 (50.13x)