Small Pipe
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.02
2.04 coins
Advertised RTP
89.82%
EV $0.92 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.03%
1,331 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,331 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBriskVault1293$1.022.04 coins$0.290.58 coins0.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.02 | 89.82% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#87c7ff 0.3%Ancient 0.4%industrial 1.4%#4b69ff 1.3%classified 0.7%restricted 91.0%mil spec 4.0%covert 1.0%best hit —