Small Present
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.37
0.73 coins
Advertised RTP
89.28%
EV $0.33 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
123.32%
13.6K openings, odds method
Variance
139.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 81
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.28% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (103.52% – 143.13%, 13,635 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$0.360.73 coins$251501 coins686.7x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$0.360.73 coins$251501 coins686.7x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$0.360.73 coins$251501 coins686.7x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$0.360.73 coins$251501 coins686.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.36 | 89.28% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ce6 0.0%restricted 3.0%#8847ff 5.0%covert 0.3%#87c7ff 0.1%Rare 5.3%Uncommon 0.5%#4b69ff 6.0%industrial 2.0%mil spec 5.0%consumer 72.8%best hit $270 (739.7x)