Smart buy

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.72
1.44 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
62.93%
446 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
186 openings · below min
30 days
446 openings · below min
since tracking started
446 openings · below min
2.0%62.8%123.5%

Small sample. 446 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d1869.45%±1.58—sample
30d44662.93%±60.1—sample
All44662.93%±60.1—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold$0.721.44 coins$56.76114 coins78.83x
★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold$0.721.44 coins$56.76114 coins78.83x
★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold$0.721.44 coins$56.76114 coins78.83x

Latest dropsnewest first

MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.721.44 coins$0.060.12 coins0.08x
Galil AR | Akoben (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.721.44 coins$0.370.74 coins0.51x
MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.721.44 coins$0.060.12 coins0.08x
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.721.44 coins$0.040.08 coins0.06x
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.721.44 coins$0.040.08 coins0.06x
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$0.721.44 coins$0.030.05 coins0.03x
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$0.721.44 coins$0.030.05 coins0.03x
Galil AR | Akoben (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.721.44 coins$0.370.74 coins0.51x
MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare$0.721.44 coins$0.160.32 coins0.22x
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$0.721.44 coins$0.030.05 coins0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $57.54 (79.91x)