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smiling baby

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$0.23
0.45 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
87.29%
602 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
16 openings · below min
7 days
540 openings · below min
30 days
602 openings · below min
since tracking started
602 openings · below min
-0.5%97.5%195.5%

Small sample. 602 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h162.22%±0.00—sample
7d54097.06%±97.8—sample
30d60287.29%±87.7—sample
All60287.29%±87.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covertTIKTOKDIevas$0.230.45 coins$49.3698.71 coins219.4x
FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins$24.9849.95 coins111.0x
CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$0.230.45 coins$19.1838.36 coins85.24x
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.230.45 coins$14.6129.21 coins64.91x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerTIKTOKDIevas$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.230.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $49.36 (219.4x)