Smoke

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$105.57

211 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $95.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

137.48%

30 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

30 openings · below min

since tracking started

30 openings · below min

41.0%128.0%215.0%

Small sample. 30 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	127.84%±86.4	—	odds
30d	30	137.48%±74.0	—	odds
All	30	137.48%±74.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,935 3,870 coins	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Night (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,861 3,722 coins	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,258 2,517 coins	6.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$838 1,677 coins	8.8%	1	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$834 1,669 coins	8.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$824 1,648 coins	8.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$563 1,126 coins	5.9%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$542 1,084 coins	5.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$518 1,035 coins	5.4%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 100	$503 1,006 coins	5.3%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20	$378 756 coins	19.9%	5	1.5	3.33×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 20	$170 340 coins	8.9%	3	1.5	2.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 20	$122 244 coins	6.4%	2	1.5	1.33×
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$45.21 90.41 coins	2.9%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$12.07 24.13 coins	0.8%	0	1.8	0.00×
Negev \| Boroque Sand (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	65.3%	$2.71 5.41 coins	1.9%	18	19.6	0.92×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.