Smoked Loot
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.27
34.54 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $15.54 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.53%
327 openings, odds method
Variance
22.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 327 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 18.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Night (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,089 2,177 coins | 17.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 40 | $110 219 coins | 17.6% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 1 in 25 | $94.29 189 coins | 24.3% | 13 | 13.1 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 11.0% | $19.17 38.33 coins | 13.6% | 45 | 36.0 | 1.25× |
| MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 13.0% | $5.23 10.46 coins | 4.4% | 39 | 42.5 | 0.92× |
| P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 23.0% | $1.87 3.74 coins | 2.8% | 71 | 75.2 | 0.94× |
| MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 23.0% | $1.10 2.19 coins | 1.6% | 82 | 75.2 | 1.09× |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 23.0% | $0.10 0.21 coins | 0.2% | 69 | 75.2 | 0.92× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.27 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.8%covert 0.3%industrial 38.0%#87c7ff 36.0%Uncommon 23.0%best hit $1,089 (63.04x)