Snapped
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.04
6.08 coins
Advertised RTP
89.88%
EV $2.73 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.51%
604 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 604 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 22.9% | 17 | 12.1 | 1.41× |
| P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $25.74 51.47 coins | 18.8% | 17 | 12.1 | 1.41× |
| Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $22.78 45.56 coins | 16.7% | 18 | 12.1 | 1.49× |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $19.18 38.36 coins | 14.0% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× |
| USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $13.42 26.84 coins | 9.8% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× |
| FAMAS | Night Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 25 | $3.03 6.06 coins | 4.4% | 17 | 24.2 | 0.70× |
| CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $1.56 3.11 coins | 5.7% | 49 | 60.4 | 0.81× |
| R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Factory New)weapon · Common | 20.0% | $0.47 0.94 coins | 3.4% | 120 | 120.8 | 0.99× |
| UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New)weapon · blue | 26.0% | $0.26 0.52 coins | 2.5% | 170 | 157.0 | 1.08× |
| SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $0.15 0.31 coins | 1.7% | 175 | 181.2 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.04 | 89.88% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%mil spec 6.0%classified 2.0%Consumer Grade 14.0%Common 20.0%blue 26.0%Rare 30.0%best hit —